PhD defense: The future of sustainable hydropower development in the Indus basin

Though hydropower development in the Indus is primarily linked to achieving energy security under Sustainable Development Goal or SDG 7 (energy), it also affects SDG 2 (food), 6 (water), 9 (resilient infrastructures), 10 (social equity), 13 (climate action) and 15 (biodiversity). Considering these linkages between hydropower and the SDGs, this thesis explored the potential for sustainable hydropower development in the Indus basin under climate and socio-economic changes. The research methods in this thesis explore the quantification of diverse factors affecting the sustainability of hydropower to improve their inclusion in hydropower policies and investment plans.

This research finds that the current focus on large scale hydropower development in the Indus is not the most efficient strategy. Instead, a mix of large and small hydropower plants, with diverse configurations, can maximize technical, financial and even sustainable hydropower available in the basin. Climate change can increase affordable hydropower, especially in the southeast. However, the combined effect of future changes in climate and population may lead to an uneven distribution of per capita hydropower available across the basin, exacerbating existing spatial disparities in energy access. Still, sustainable hydropower available in the upper Indus can meet local demand, but achieving universal energy security in the Upper and Lower Indus will require hydropower development in unsustainable areas harming nature, increasing hazard risks or worsening water conflicts. While climate change is crucial in hydropower planning, local policies and preferences regarding hydropower type and sustainability measures have a stronger influence on hydropower availability.

By quantifying theoretical, technical, financial and sustainable hydropower potential in the Indus, this thesis provides a comprehensive assessment essential for balancing the SDGs with hydropower development sustainably and equitably in a resource-limited world.