Colloquium Pieter Groenemeijer

Severe convective storms in Europe: climate research and forecasting

Severe weather events related to deep, moist convection, such as flash floods, large hailstorms, tornadoes and extreme wind gusts, cause significant damage in Europe every year. Because these events are very localized and of short duration, it is not possible to accurately map the occurrence of these events using routine synoptic measurement networks. Observations collected by volunteers from media and other sources are important sources to complement the data. The most extensive dataset in Europe is the European Severe Weather Database, managed by the European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL). Both ESSL and a large number of researchers use these data for a variety of research purposes, which include the modeling of extreme event occurrence based on statistical relationships with observable quantities on the mesoscale. Reanalysis data and projections from climate models can be used to study the spatial and temporal distribution of severe event occurrence. Such hazard models can in turn be used as a basis for risk models used by reinsurers and governments. In my presentation, I will report on the work of ESSL and other research groups on the collection of convective severe weather data and their impacts, on hazard and risk modeling, and ESSL's recently begun efforts to use such hazard models in a weather forecasting context.