Can the thousands of war crimes of the Russian-Ukrainian war be tried?

At this moment, the war between Russia and Ukraine has already spawned more than a hundred thousand possible lawsuits. But will they ever be pursued? Assistant Professor in International History Iva Vukušić is an expert on war crimes and criminal liability. Drawing on her research on the Yugoslav wars, she talks to Ukrainian news site Babel about what Ukraine can possibly expect from the future.

War crimes trials Russia-Ukraine

With over one hundred thousand lawsuits already, Vukušić stresses, it is important for Ukrainians to realise there is no justice system that could ensure full justice and punish all criminals. At this moment, there are already more than 100 thousand cases. No one will be able to investigate such a large number of cases and prosecution on such a large scale has also historically proved impossible.

It currently lacks a tribunal, Vukušić explains. National courts and the International Criminal Court have so far issued two arrest warrants, and she expects that cases against up to ten people could eventually be brought. “If after ten years 5-10% of cases are considered successfully and fairly, this will be a good result.” She emphasises that it is beneficial to think about alternatives that can be offered to victims.

Truth commission for Ukrainian victims

Therefore it would be beneficiary to think about alternatives, Vukušić feels, such as a truth commission. This would be a way for people to talk about their experiences in a public place, while also being important for historians. “For example, the report of the Human Rights Watch on the investigation of what happened in Mariupol is information available to everyone,” she explains, “which narrows the space for denial and allows you to fight the theses that ‘it’s all a fake’.”

Furthermore, Vukušić stresses the importance of psychological help for survivors, veterans, and former prisoners of war and the search for missing persons. “Rebuilding your life will be more important to someone than seeing a criminal in prison”, she says. “Itʼs not magic that will heal society, but it can ease the pain.”

Could Putin be put on trial?

“There is always a lot of pressure, demands to investigate and condemn immediately”, Vukušić says. “But this is the wrong approach.” She explains that it is important to take enough time, as high profile cases are very difficult to investigate and prove. “It is easier for the defense to collapse the case when the prosecution does not have access to documents and occupied territories. And the prosecution will have to put together a puzzle from small details — slowly and consistently.”

Especially when it comes to high-profile court cases like the one against Putin, Vukušić stresses. “When I am asked what are the chances that Putin will be arrested, I always answer that now it is not very high, but it is now. Because everything changes.”