Dr. Arie Staal
Assistant Professor
Publications
2024
Scholarly publications
Porkka, M., Virkki, V., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Gerten, D., Gleeson, T., Mohan, C., Fetzer, I., Jaramillo, F., Staal, A., Wierik, S. T., Tobian, A., Ent, R. V. D., Döll, P., Flörke, M., Gosling, S. N., Hanasaki, N., Satoh, Y., Schmied, H. M., Wanders, N., ... Kummu, M. (2024). Notable shifts beyond pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions transgress the planetary boundary for freshwater change. Nature Water. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-024-00208-7
Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R. A., Levis, C., Lapola, D. M., Esquível-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., Nobre, C. A., Oliveira, R. S., Borma, L. S., Nian, D., Boers, N., Hecht, S. B., Steege, H. T., Arieira, J., Lucas, I. L., ... Hirota, M. (2024). Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system. Nature, 626(7999), 555-564. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/435953/s41586-023-06970-0.pdf?sequence=1
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/435953/s41586-023-06970-0.pdf?sequence=1
Benson, V., Donges, J. F., Boers, N., Hirota, M., Morr, A., Staal, A., Vollmer, J., & Wunderling, N. (2024). Measuring tropical rainforest resilience under non-Gaussian disturbances. Environmental Research Letters, (2), Article 024029. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1e80
Staal, A., Theeuwen, J. J. E., Wang‐Erlandsson, L., Wunderling, N., & Dekker, S. C. (2024). Targeted rainfall enhancement as an objective of forestation. Global Change Biology, 30(1), Article e17096. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17096
2023
Scholarly publications
Amstrong Mc Kay, D. L., Sakschewski, B., Roman-Cuestra, R. M., Dakos, V., Flores, B. M., Hessen, D. O., Hirota, M., & Staal, A. (2023). 1.3 Tipping points in the biosphere. In T. M. Lenton, D. L. Amstrong Mc Kay, S. Loriani, J. F. Abrams, S. J. Lade, J. F. Donges, J. E. Buxton, M. Milkoreit, T. Powell, S. R. Smith, C. Zimm, E. Bailey, J. G. Dyke, A. Ghadiali, & L. Laybourn (Eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2023 (pp. 78-121). University of Exeter.
Soltani, M., Hamelers, B., Mofidi, A., Fletcher, C. G., Staal, A., Dekker, S. C., Laux, P., Arnault, J., Kunstmann, H., van der Hoeven, T., & Lanters, M. (2023). A 20-year satellite-reanalysis-based climatology of extreme precipitation characteristics over the Sinai Peninsula. Earth System Dynamics, 14(5), 931-953. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-931-2023
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/435570/esd-14-931-2023.pdf?sequence=1
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/435570/esd-14-931-2023.pdf?sequence=1
Theeuwen, J., Staal, A., Tuinenburg, O., Hamelers, B., & Dekker, S. (2023). Local moisture recycling across the globe. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 27(7), 1457-1476. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1457-2023
Wang-Erlandsson, L., Ent, R. J. V. D., Staal, A., Keys, P., Zemp, D. C., Fetzer, I., Taniguchi, M., & Gordon, L. (2023). Dry Periods Amplify the Amazon and Congo Forests' Rainfall Self-Reliance. ESS Open Archive. https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.168055170.04559257/v1
Staal, A., & Koren, G. (2023). Comment on ‘The central role of forests in the 2021 European floods’. Environmental Research Letters, 18(4), Article 048002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc260
Staal, A., Koren, G., Tejada, G., & Gatti, L. V. (2023). Moisture origins of the Amazon carbon source region. Environmental Research Letters, 18(4), Article 044027. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acc676
Wang-Erlandsson, L., Ent, R. V. D., Staal, A., Keys, P., Zemp, D. C., Fetzer, I., Taniguchi, M., & Gordon, L. (2023). Dry seasons and dry years amplify the Amazon and Congo forests’ rainfall self-reliance . Abstract from European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14167
Theeuwen, J., Staal, A., Tuinenburg, O., Hamelers, B., & Dekker, S. (2023). Local moisture recycling across the globe. Abstract from European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6883
2022
Scholarly publications
Wunderling, N., Wolf, F., Tuinenburg, O., & Staal, A. (2022). Network motifs shape distinct functioning of Earth’s moisture recycling hubs. Nature Communications, 13, 1-26. Article 6574. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34229-1
Chrysafi, A., Virkki, V., Jalava, M., Sandström, V., Piipponen, J., Porkka, M., Lade, S. J., La Mere, K., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Scherer, L., Andersen, L. S., Bennett, E., Brauman, K. A., Cooper, G. S., De Palma, A., Döll, P., Downing, A. S., DuBois, T. C., Fetzer, I., ... Kummu, M. (2022). Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation. Nature Sustainability, 5(10), 830-842. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6
Staal, A. (2022). Plants water the planet. Nature Geoscience, 15(12), 958-959. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01086-y
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022). Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science, 377(6611), 1-10. Article eabn7950. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950
Chen, B. J. W., Teng, S. N., Zheng, G., Cui, L., Li, S., Staal, A., Eitel, J. U. H., Crowther, T. W., Berdugo, M., Mo, L., Ma, H., Bialic‐Murphy, L., Zohner, C. M., Maynard, D. S., Averill, C., Zhang, J., He, Q., Evers, J. B., Anten, N. P. R., ... Xu, C. (2022). Inferring plant–plant interactions using remote sensing. Journal of Ecology, 110(10), 2268-2287. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13980
Theeuwen, J., Staal, A., Tuinenburg, O., Hamelers, B., & Dekker, S. (2022). Local moisture recycling across the globe. (pp. 1-20). European Geosciences Union (EGU). https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-612
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/422360/egusphere_2022_612.pdf?sequence=1
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/422360/egusphere_2022_612.pdf?sequence=1
Wunderling, N., Staal, A., Sakschewski, B., Hirota, M., Tuinenburg, O. A., Donges, J. F., Barbosa, H. M. J., & Winkelmann, R. (2022). Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(32), 1-11. Article e2120777119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120777119
Flores, B. M., & Staal, A. (2022). Feedback in tropical forests of the Anthropocene. Global Change Biology, 28(17), 5041-5061. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16293
Wang-Erlandsson, L., Tobian, A., van der Ent, R. J., Fetzer, I., te Wierik, S., Porkka, M., Staal, A., Jaramillo, F., Dahlmann, H., Singh, C., Greve, P., Gerten, D., Keys, P. W., Gleeson, T., Cornell, S. E., Steffen, W., Bai, X., & Rockström, J. (2022). A planetary boundary for green water. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 3(6), 380-392. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00287-8
Staal, A., Tejada, G., & Gatti, L. (2022). Moisture sources of the Amazon carbon source. 1-1. Abstract from EGU General Assembly 2022 (Online), Vienna, Austria. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3828
Soltani, M., Hamelers, B., Mofidi, A., Hoeven, T. V. D., Staal, A., Dekker, S. C., Arnault, J., Laux, P., Kunstmann, H., & Lanters, M. (2022). A 20-year satellite-reanalysis-based climatology of extreme precipitation characteristics over the Sinai Peninsula. Earth System Dynamics (ESD). https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2022-10
Theeuwen, J., Staal, A., Hamelers, B., Soltani, M., Tuinenburg, O., & Dekker, S. (2022). Using local moisture recycling to assess the impact of regreening on the local water cycle in five Mediterranean regions. 1-1. Abstract from EGU General Assembly 2022 (Online), Vienna, Austria. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5849
McKay, D. A., Staal, A., Abrams, J., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. (2022). Updated assessment suggests >1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Abstract from EGU General Assembly 2022 (Online), Vienna, Austria. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12438
Dekker, S. C., O'connor, J. C., Staal, A., Tuinenburg, O. A., Rebel, K. T., & Santos, M. J. (2022). How forests transpiration and interception evaporation can buffer variations in precipitation downwind. Abstract from EGU General Assembly 2022 (Online), Vienna, Austria. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2794
Tuinenburg, O. A., Bosmans, J. H. C., & Staal, A. (2022). The global potential of forest restoration for drought mitigation. Environmental Research Letters, 17(3), 1-7. Article 034045. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac55b8
Professional publications
Staal, A. (2022). Bos behoudt regen, regen behoudt bos. In Veerkracht: Hoe biologische systemen omgaan met stress (Vol. Kwartaal 1 2022, pp. 58-60). Stichting Biowetenschappen en Maatschappij. https://www.biomaatschappij.nl/product/veerkracht/
2021
Scholarly publications
Graham, E. B., Averill, C., Bond-Lamberty, B., Knelman, J. E., Krause, S., Peralta, A. L., Shade, A., Smith, A. P., Cheng, S. J., Fanin, N., Freund, C., Garcia, P. E., Gibbons, S. M., Van Goethem, M. W., Guebila, M. B., Kemppinen, J., Nowicki, R. J., Pausas, J. G., Reed, S. P., ... Barnes, R. (2021). Toward a Generalizable Framework of Disturbance Ecology Through Crowdsourced Science. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 9, 1-14. Article 588940. https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.588940
Cropper, S., Solander, K., Newman, B. D., Tuinenburg, O. A., Staal, A., Theeuwen, J. J. E., & Xu, C. (2021). Comparing deuterium excess to large-scale precipitation recycling models in the tropics. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4(1), 1-9. Article 60. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00217-3
Faria, B. L. D., Staal, A., Silva, C. A., Martin, P. A., Panday, P. K., & Dantas, V. L. (2021). Climate change and deforestation increase the vulnerability of Amazonian forests to post‐fire grass invasion. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 30(12), 2368-2381. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13388
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/413027/geb.13388.pdf?sequence=1
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/413027/geb.13388.pdf?sequence=1
Wunderling, N., Krönke, J., Wohlfarth, V., Kohler, J., Heitzig, J., Staal, A., Willner, S., Winkelmann, R., & Donges, J. F. (2021). Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: the PyCascades package. European Physical Journal: Special Topics, 230, 3163-3176. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00155-4
Baudena, M., Tuinenburg, O. A., Ferdinand, P. A., & Staal, A. (2021). Effects of land-use change in the Amazon on precipitation are likely underestimated. Global Change Biology, 27(21), 5580-5587. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15810
O'Connor, J. C., Dekker, S. C., Staal, A., Tuinenburg, O. A., Rebel, K. T., & Santos, M. J. (2021). Forests buffer against variations in precipitation. Global Change Biology, 27(19), 4686-4696. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15763
Lade, S. J., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Staal, A., & Rocha, J. C. (2021). Empirical pressure-response relations can benefit assessment of safe operating spaces. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 5(8), 1078-1079. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-021-01481-5
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/412274/s41559_021_01481_5.pdf?sequence=1
https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/412274/s41559_021_01481_5.pdf?sequence=1
Wang-Erlandsson, L., Ent, R. V. D., Staal, A., Porkka, M., Tobian, A., Wierik, S. T., Fetzer, I., Singh, C., Jaramillo, F., Greve, P., Gerten, D., Keys, P., Dahlmann, H., Gleeson, T., Steffen, W., Cornell, S., & Rockström, J. (2021). Towards a green water planetary boundary. EGU21-13583. Abstract from EGU General Assembly 2021, Vienna, Austria. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13583
Theeuwen, J., Tuinenburg, O., Staal, A., Hamelers, B., & Dekker, S. (2021). Moisture recycling in five different regions with Mediterranean climates around the world. EGU21-7248. Abstract from EGU General Assembly 2021. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7248
2020
Scholarly publications
Wunderling, N., Staal, A., Sakschewski, B., Hirota, M., Tuinenburg, O., Donges, J., Barbosa, H., & Winkelmann, R. (2020). Network dynamics of drought-induced tipping cascades in the Amazon rainforest. (Research Square). Research Square. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-71039/v1
McKay, D. A., Staal, A., Cornell, S., Lenton, T., & Fetzer, I. (2020). Climate Tipping Points: Can they trigger a Global Cascade?. Abstract from EGU General Assembly 2020, Online. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-17889
Staal, A., Flores, B. M., Aguiar, A. P. D., Bosmans, J. H. C., Fetzer, I., & Tuinenburg, O. A. (2020). Feedback between drought and deforestation in the Amazon. Environmental Research Letters, 15(4), Article 044024. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab738e
Krönke, J., Wunderling, N., Winkelmann, R., Staal, A., Stumpf, B., Tuinenburg, O. A., & Donges, J. F. (2020). Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks. Physical Review E, 101(4), Article 042311. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.101.042311
Tuinenburg, O. A., & Staal, A. (2020). Tracking the global flows of atmospheric moisture and associated uncertainties. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 24(5), 2419-2435. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2419-2020
Tuinenburg, O. A., Theeuwen, J. J. E., & Staal, A. (2020). High-resolution global atmospheric moisture connections from evaporation to precipitation. Earth System Science Data, 12(4), 3177-3188. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3177-2020
Staal, A., Fetzer, I., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Bosmans, J. H. C., Dekker, S. C., van Nes, E. H., Rockström, J., & Tuinenburg, O. A. (2020). Hysteresis of tropical forests in the 21st century. Nature Communications, 11(1), Article 4978. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18728-7
Wunderling, N., Stumpf, B., Krönke, J., Staal, A., Tuinenburg, O. A., Winkelmann, R., & Donges, J. F. (2020). How motifs condition critical thresholds for tipping cascades in complex networks: Linking micro- to macro-scales. Chaos, 30(4), Article 043129 . https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5142827
2019
Scholarly publications
Flores, B. M., Staal, A., Jacovac, C. C., Hirota, M., Holmgren, M., & Oliveira, R. S. (2019). Soil erosion as a resilience drain in disturbed tropical forests. Plant and Soil, 450(1), 11-25. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-019-04097-8
Bernardi, R. E., Staal, A., Xu, C., Scheffer, M., & Holmgren, M. (2019). Livestock herbivory shapes fire regimes and vegetation structure across the global tropics. Ecosystems, 22, 1457-1465. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-019-00349-x
2018
Scholarly publications
Xu, C., Staal, A., Hantson, S., Holmgren, M., Nes, E. H. V., & Scheffer, M. (2018). Remotely sensed canopy height reveals three pantropical ecosystem states: reply. Ecology, 99(1), 235-237. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.2077
Nes, E. H. V., Staal, A., Hantson, S., Holmgren, M., Pueyo, S., Bernardi, R. E., Flores, B. M., Xu, C., & Scheffer, M. (2018). Fire forbids fifty-fifty forest. PLoS One, 13(1), Article e0191027. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0191027
Staal, A., Tuinenburg, O. A., Bosmans, J. H. C., Holmgren, M., Nes, E. H. V., Scheffer, M., Zemp, D. C., & Dekker, S. C. (2018). Forest-rainfall cascades buffer against drought across the Amazon. Nature Climate Change, 8, 539-543. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0177-y
Staal, A., van Nes, E. H., Hantson, S., Holmgren, M., Dekker, S. C., Pueyo, S., Xu, C., & Scheffer, M. (2018). Resilience of tropical tree cover: the roles of climate, fire and herbivory. Global Change Biology, 24(11), 5096-5109. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14408
2017
Scholarly publications
Zemp, D. C., Schleussner, C.-F., Barbosa, H. M. J., Hirota, M., Montade, V., Sampaio, G., Staal, A., Wang-Erlandsson, L., & Rammig, A. (2017). Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. Nature Communications, 8, Article 14681. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14681
2016
Scholarly publications
Nes, E. H. V., Arani, B. M. S., Staal, A., Bolt, B. V. D., Flores, B. M., Bathiany, S., & Scheffer, M. (2016). What do you mean, ‘tipping point’? Trends in ecology & evolution, 31(12), 902-904. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2016.09.011
Xu, C., Hantson, S., Holmgren, M., Nes, E. H. V., Staal, A., & Scheffer, M. (2016). Remotely sensed canopy height reveals three pantropical ecosystem states. Ecology, 97(9), 2518-2521. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1470
Staal, A., Dekker, S. C., Xu, C., & van Nes, E. H. (2016). Bistability, Spatial Interaction, and the Distribution of Tropical Forests and Savannas. Ecosystems, 19(6), 1080-1091. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-016-0011-1
2015
Scholarly publications
Staal, A., & Flores, B. M. (2015). Sharp ecotones spark sharp ideas: comment on "Structural, physiognomic and above-ground biomass variation in savanna–forest transition zones on three continents – how different are co-occurring savanna and forest formations?" by Veenendaal et al. (2015). Biogeosciences, 12(18), 5563-5566. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5563-2015
Staal, A., Dekker, S. C., Hirota, M., & van Nes, E. H. (2015). Synergistic effects of drought and deforestation on the resilience of the south-eastern Amazon rainforest. Ecological Complexity, 22(June 2015), 65-75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2015.01.003