Adapting to climate change will take time, so we need to hurry up

A summit on climate adaptation toke place in the Netherlands in January 2021. We have the ability to adapt, as researcher Marjolijn Haasnoot explains. However, we have no time to lose. 

Climate change is no longer a distant future scenario; its effects are already visible today. Examples include our recent dry summers, forest fires, the temperature record of 40 degrees in the Netherlands and the 38-degree temperatures registered above the Arctic Circle. Limiting the effects of climate change will require a major global effort. Even if the most drastic climate change scenarios don't ultimately materialise, we will still need to adapt - especially to rising sea levels.

After all, sea levels will continue to rise for centuries, even if temperatures do eventually stabilise. The melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, a major contributing factor, will continue for hundreds of years to come. A 1-degree temperature increase translates into a 2.5-metre sea level rise over hundreds of years.

Fortunately, we have plenty of opportunities to adapt, with more becoming available as time goes on. The Netherlands is known for its ability to adapt to water. After all, we have centuries of experience. In addition to existing hard infrastructure projects, such as the Delta Works and Afsluitdijk, we are increasingly developing solutions that adapt to nature, such as the Sand Engine (Zandmotor). This unique experiment harnesses the power of waves, wind and currents to maintain the coastline and helps it adapt to rising sea levels. Other examples include the creation of wetlands along dikes or dams, in which vegetation breaks the power of the waves.

The Netherlands is preparing and adjusting to these changes on the basis of an adaptive plan that will be implemented and fine-tuned depending on the speed at which the sea level rises. The question is, will these efforts prove timely enough? Adapting takes time; time to prepare broadly supported plans and time to implement them. For example, it took about thirty years to design and build the Delta Works. The Eastern Scheldt Storm Surge Barrier (Oosterscheldekering) was built over a period of sixteen years.

Flood protection

Some 25 kilometres of dike are currently upgraded every year in an effort to meet the new 2015 flood protection standard by 2050. The Delta Commissioner recently called for more urgent efforts to tackle the required 1,000 kilometres of dike. The Netherlands has some 3,100 km of dikes that will have to be upgraded if climate change progresses. Although we have already learned a great deal, we now face a greater challenge than ever before due to the magnitude and acceleration of climate change.

We must start using the time that remains to experiment with new measures, such as the more widespread use of natural solutions and saline agriculture. In addition to improving water safety and the availability of fresh water, this will also have a positive impact in terms of recreation and nature.

The good news is: there are plenty of opportunities and we still have time. But not an ocean of time.

These developments are taking place against a backdrop of ongoing global changes. Population levels are rising around the world and a growing number of people are moving to coastal areas. Here in the Netherlands, an increasing number of people are relocating to the Randstad conurbation, necessitating more space for residential and commercial development. Planned investments in renewable energy, housing and civil engineering often have a long lifespan, generating new opportunities. The decisions we make today thus determine our future.

Excess river water

Plans for the future of our country should factor in the need to adapt dunes, flood defences, dykes and fresh water storage facilities: we now have more to protect, while sea levels are rising and demand for fresh water is increasing. We also need more capacity for the storage of excess river water, as it will become more difficult for the excess to flow into the sea as sea levels rise. In view of the long timescales involved, any decisions on new developments such as housing, work and energy transition should already take climate change and rising sea levels into account.

This will require flexible measures and investments, and an end to construction on vulnerable, low-lying areas. Rather than further restricting our development, this approach will enable us to apply new developments towards building a more climate-proof country.

The good news is: there are plenty of opportunities and we still have time. However, we certainly don't have oceans of time.