Researchers in Utrecht have used a large database of railway data to analyse the main causes of nation-wide railway network disruptions. This delay model will make it possible to calculate at any moment in time the likelihood of such a severe disruption occurring. The researchers published their results earlier this month in the academic journal PLOS ONE.
For their publication, the researchers studied the development of nation-wide disruptions of the Dutch rail network. Mark Dekker, the publication’s lead author: “These are cases in which delays accumulate and expand, for example because several conductors find themselves stuck in a delayed train. In these cases, delays can spread through the rail network like an oil stain. It doesn’t happen very often; only around five times per year. But when it does happen, it’s very serious.”