The importance of understanding differences in climate policy scenario outcomes

To understand the consequences of climate policies, scientists use scenarios to explore the future. These influential scenarios are based on complex models of the global energy system. Between these scenarios big differences arise in emissions and the use of different energy sources. A new paper in Nature examines which of these scenario outcomes are in fact robust matters of consensus rather than being dependent on which computer model or scenario assumptions were used. A significant reduction of fossil fuel use turns out to be inevitable to meet the Paris goals: it consistently occurs across all models. On the other hand, the choice of specific renewable energy sources (e.g. wind, solar or geothermal) is highly model-dependent. Policy makers should be aware of the differences between models and should avoid making policy choices based on the outcomes of one single model, researchers from PBL Netherlands Environmental Agency and say.

Source: PBL