No sea too high

Antarctica – Medical specialists are better at communicating bad news than climate scientists. But it still needs to be said: melting of the ice in Antarctica is an emergency signal provided by nature. This was the message given by Roderik van de Wal in his inaugural lecture as Professor of Sea Level and Coastal Impacts, held in Utrecht on 10 January.

This blog was published on 28 January 2020 on the climate blog of the NRC.

As Dutch people, fighting against water is in our genes. For as long as we can remember, we have engaged in the struggle with water, and it is a struggle we expect to continue for a long time in view of climate change and the accompanying rising sea levels. It is therefore not surprising that adapting to the changing climate is a key issue right now. In our culture, this adaptation is interpreted as raising our dykes up higher. According to our own prime minister, our dyke builders and dredgers are up to the task! By saying this, he suggests that we have everything under control and do not need to take any other measures. But is that just?

The ice in Antarctica is rapidly decreasing in volume, as shown by satellite observations. This is probably because water from the Pacific, which is comparatively warm, is reaching the ice cap and melting it. Large parts of Antarctica are below sea level and are being eaten away by the sea. The melting of these vulnerable parts of the ice cap will not happen overnight, but may last a thousand years.

No reassurance

However, the fact that the melting ice in Antarctica is currently resulting in a sea level rise of ‘only’ a few millimetres a year is no reassurance, because the part of Antarctica that can melt in this manner could result in a sea level rise of twenty metres.

Instead of focussing on how we can physically defend our country, the Netherlands would do better to take the lead in emissions reduction

Moreover, we know of no process that can stop or stabilise the melting of ice in underwater areas at the base of Antarctica. When we take this into account, the idea that our coastal defences will be able to withstand a sea level rise of one metre by the end the century is no longer as reassuring. Instead of focussing on how we can physically defend our country, the Netherlands would do better to take the lead in emissions reduction.

In the meantime, we need to continue protecting ourselves against rising sea levels and preparing for various scenarios. Although scientific studies involve a large degree of uncertainty, it is obvious that building dykes is not the only thing we can and must do.

Scientific studies show that if we fail to take serious measures to cut emissions of fossil fuels, we will pass the tipping point for the stability of the Antarctic ice cap. At that stage, processes will become irreversible: the ice cap will shrink and ultimately the sea level will rise by twenty metres.

Communicating bad news is something at which medical specialists seem to be better than climate scientists

That is bad news. However, communicating bad news is something at which medical specialists seem to be better than climate scientists. Preparing people for what will come is difficult in climate science, because messages are politically charged. Facts quickly turn into opinions and whenever possible, the position of science is called into question.

Despite all of this, just like in the medical field – giving up is not an option. Problems will only grow bigger if we do nothing and prevention is better than to cure. Of course, it remains difficult to say if it matters whether global warming remains limited to 1.9 or 2.0 degrees, but we know that the risks for 1.9 degrees are smaller than for 2.0 degrees. The headline ‘No sea too high’ thus references the idea that reducing emissions is a serious task. However, if we put our backs into it, we are guaranteed success in at least reducing the risks.

Scientists from Utrecht University are reporting in the climate blog of the NRC on their research in the field of sustainability. They are united around the strategic theme of 'Pathways to Sustainability.

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