Nature publication: “Electric cars will only become common with a much broader stimulation policy.”

The choices involving the future transport system and the role of low-carbon vehicles are not just about costs. A big number of other considerations involving consumer behaviour play an important part as well. For this reason, it is important that the outcomes of model studies are more often combined with insights from social sciences. A new Nature publication by, among others, the Utrecht-based professor Detlef van Vuuren shows how that can be done. The paper shows that a broader stimulation policy is more effective than monetary measures.

Transportation makes up 25 % of the energy-related CO₂ exhaust in the world, half of which comes from privately-owned passenger cars. At the time of writing, less than 0.5 % of the cars in the world are electric cars. The stimulation of the use of low-carbon alternatives to cars that are powered by oil products – such as electric cars – is an essential condition to meeting climate goals and improving the local air quality. The question is how that can come about in the most effective way.

Recharge points

An international research team led by Charlie Wilson (University of East Anglia) and David McCollum (IIASA) first investigated which non-financial reasons consumers all over the world had for choosing certain types of vehicles – as well as the long-term consequences of those choices in terms of carbon exhaust and energy. The research shows that consumers often look at aspects such as the available models and brands, comfort, acceleration and inside space. The availability of gas stations or recharge points is very important as well. Making conventional vehicles that are powered by gasoline and diesel more expensive is not enough to make most consumers transition to electric ones.

If policy makers choose the stimulation policy, around 25 % of the global fleet of cars will be low-carbon vehicles in 2050.

The project was a collaboration between researchers from various model groups investigating climate policy, including the IMAGE-model – which is led by Detlef van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Utrecht University). Such models usually assume that costs are a dominant factor. With the knowledge about consumer behaviour and these models, two different future scenarios for the worldwide policy of ‘alternatively-powered vehicles’ until 2050 were reviewed. This includes, but is not limited to, electric cars/trucks, hybrids and hydrogen-powered vehicles.

The stimulation scenario assumes a future in which policy makers adopt a broad range of policy measures that aim to change behaviour. Think of purchase subsidies, investments in recharge infrastructures and reserved parking spaces, campaigns on social media and facilities for shared cars. In the second scenario, the assumption is that stimulation only occurs in the form of costs measures.

25% of the global fleet of cars

If policy makers choose the stimulation policy, around 25 % of the global fleet of cars will be low-carbon vehicles in 2050, maybe even more – the projections predict. But there will be big differences between parts of the world. Without such policies, the market for low-carbon vehicles will lag behind greatly, considering the assumptions in these models.

“Our research shows how important it is to combine the knowledge from various scientific fields. Models are an important means to explore the future, but are necessitated to simplify matters. Collaborating with other scientific fields makes it possible to support policy makers as well as possible after all,” says Detlef van Vuuren.

Norway

Countries such as China, Iceland, Norway and Sweden are already successfully carrying out a broad stimulation policy for low-carbon vehicles. In Norway, 40 % of all passenger cars that were sold in 2017 consisted of electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles. Still, a strong expansion of electric cars worldwide is not as simple as it sometimes looks. “People often forget that even in wealthy countries, there is a long way to go before electric cars leave their current relatively niche market and form the absolute majority of the car fleet. In less wealthy countries, this will be even slower.”

Stimulation of the market for low-carbon vehicles is also expected to lead to cost reduction and improvement of critical technologies, such as batteries and infrastructures for quick recharging. This can lead to a readjustment of the current negative image of low-carbon vehicles and finally to the normalisation of purchasing and using them.