Heat and drought: ‘Reality is outpacing expectations’

‘Countries around the world are experiencing record-breaking temperatures and the highest alert risk for wildfires.’ Unfortunately, this opening sentence from an article published in 2022 has lost none of its urgency. For the article, we asked our social media followers what they wanted to know about heatwaves and drought. One of the scientists who answered these questions was Niko Wanders, Associate Professor of Hydrology. How does he view heat and drought in 2026?

Is the current heat and drought in line with what you predicted a few years ago? 

'Things are happening faster than I had expected. Admittedly, outliers stand out more in this age of memes and short videos, but reality sometimes outpaces expectations. The dry springs we’ve seen recently, for example, were only supposed to occur in the future. You’re seeing a sort of acceleration in the extremes. As a scientist, this surprises me.

More and more of these extremes can be scientifically attributed to climate change. And the problems are getting worse. We’re also facing a strong El Niño that’s developing, which may lead to even more extremes, particularly in South America, Africa and Australia.'

To what extent have new heat and drought records been broken since the 2022 article?

'Extremes are increasing at both ends of the spectrum: dry spells are interspersed with extreme downpours or extremely wet periods. For example, 2023 was one of the wettest years ever recorded in the Netherlands, but at the same time, water levels in the Rhine were low that summer. Last year began with an exceptionally dry spring lasting until the end of May. And 2026 also started extraordinarily dry (the Rhine is now very low again). Normally we would only expect to see this once every twenty years. As the discharge levels of the major rivers are now much lower than average for this time of year, the alert level in the Netherlands was raised to ‘impending water shortage’ on 1 July.'

So should we focus on adapting to new circumstances? 

'The Netherlands certainly needs to prepare for a new future with more frequent and longer periods of drought. This is shown by our research and also by the KNMI’s climate scenarios. Moreover, rising temperatures are increasing the demand for water – for irrigation, for cooling industrial processes and for energy supply. At the same time, the warmer it is, the more water evaporates back into the atmosphere.

Over the course of the year, the total amount of water will not decrease significantly, but we will see more extremes: more water in winter and less in summer. That is why, for example, we have the Delta Programme on Freshwater, to provide clarity on all the difficult choices we will face in the future.'

Are all recent research findings nothing but cause for concern? 

'As far as I’m concerned, yes. What is encouraging, however, is that everyone is increasingly recognising the need to change the way we act and manage our water resources. Nevertheless, we still have a long way to go and difficult choices to make to ensure we have enough water for everyone in the future.'

Researchers have been warning about increasing heat and drought for a long time. These warnings are (presumably) not always acted upon. If you were allowed to introduce one measure or policy tomorrow, what would it be? 

'That we start making much sharper decisions about where we do or do not build, and where we do or do not extract water. We must accept that, no matter how many adaptations we make, not everything will be possible anymore, however painful that may be.

Furthermore, I would say that everyone should pay a fair price for the water we use. At present, we pay very little for our – sometimes excessive – use of drinking water. And agriculture and industry also pay relatively little for their water abstractions. We need to look at how we can better monitor water abstraction and ensure that everyone contributes to the costs of the damage caused by their usage. This will make people more aware of the impact and enable us to set up a revenue model that rewards innovation and water savings.'