Detlef van Vuuren named climate scientist most cited by the IPCC
Professor Detlef van Vuuren has been ranked the sixth-most-cited climate scientist in the world in a new analysis by Carbon Brief. He is also the climate scientist most cited by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The ranking is part of Carbon Brief’s newly launched Project Cosmos, described as the largest known database of climate change research. Carbon Brief is a UK-based specialist website covering climate science, climate policy and energy policy, with a focus on clear, data-driven journalism and analysis. The database brings together more than 1.8 million climate-related publications and maps how often scientific work is cited across the field.
In the overall Cosmos 500 ranking, Van Vuuren is listed as the sixth most cited climate scientist. Carbon Brief also analysed the 107,000 publications directly referenced in IPCC reports since 1990. In this “IPCC-only” section of the database, Van Vuuren is the highest-scoring scientist. The ranking in the general and IPCC sections indicate both the scientific and policy relevance.
Modelling possible climate futures
Van Vuuren is Professor of Integrated Assessment of Global Environmental Change at Utrecht University’s Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development and senior researcher at the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, where he leads the IMAGE integrated assessment modelling team. His work focuses on global sustainability issues and the development of models and scenarios that explore possible futures for climate, the environment and society.
A major part of his scientific contribution has been in the development of emissions scenarios used by the international climate research community. He was lead author of a highly cited 2011 study introducing the Representative Concentration Pathways, which formed the basis for climate modelling in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. More recently, he also led a study introducing the scenario framework for CMIP7, the next major climate modelling exercise that will feed into the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report.
Understanding the choices ahead
In a wide-ranging interview with Carbon Brief, Van Vuuren explains the importance of scenario research. Climate change, he says, is inherently about the future: about how impacts unfold over time, and about the policy choices societies make today. “Scenarios are a way to explore different possible pathways,” he says.
This perspective has shaped much of Van Vuuren’s work: helping the climate research community understand not one single predicted future, but a range of possible futures — and the consequences of different choices.