Young Complexity Researchers’ Lunch (YCRL) #33: Early warning of critical transitions: distinguishing tipping points from Turing destabilizations

The monthly Young Complexity Research Lunch (YCRL) is organised by the open group for Young Complexity Researchers Utrecht (YCRU), consisting of PhD candidates and postdocs at UU. This community building lunch event is designed specifically for young complexity researchers to share their complex systems science related work in a relaxing and informal settings, and to provide the opportunity to discuss challenges in Complex Systems Studies.

Hereby, we cordially invite you to the Young Complexity Researchers’ Lunch (YCRL) #33 on Thursday 28 May (12:00-12:30) by Paul Sanders at the Centre for Complex Systems Studies (CCSS) where you can:

• Get a free gourmet lunch with the best sandwiches you can get in the Utrecht Science Park;

• Know one young complexity researchers' work over just 30 mins;

• Contribute your professional knowledge and experiences in a relaxing and informal setting;

• Develop potential collaboration.

YCRL #33: Early warning of critical transitions: distinguishing tipping points from Turing destabilizations
Leading young complexity researcher: Paul Sanders, Mathematical Modeling & Physical Oceanography, Utrecht University

Abstract:
Understanding the stability of spatial ecological systems from data remains a major challenge. In this talk, I present a new method for detecting early-warning signals in spatio-temporal systems. Unlike traditional approaches, the method does not rely on white-noise assumptions, incorporates spatial information, and can distinguish emerging spatial patterns from true tipping points.
The core idea is to estimate the dispersion relation directly from spatio-temporal data by inferring linear dynamics through a simple regression approach. This allows us to determine whether an instability is spatially homogeneous (a tipping point) or spatially heterogeneous (pattern formation). In the first part of the talk I will demonstrate the effectiveness of the method by studying synthetic data from a modified Klausmeier model. And in the second part of the talk I will talk shortly on the extensions of what is further possible to investigate with variations of this method.

Everyone is welcome, and please feel free to invite your colleagues/friends/classmates/students to join us.

If you would like to have the lunch arrangement, please sign up before 3pm Wednesday 27 May.