Extra-tropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in PRIMAVERA simulations
Storm damage is considered among the most hazardous and costly natural phenomenon- aftermaths for both human life and property. Tropical cyclones in specific, which are called hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, constitute one of the main causes of storm damage in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean islands. However, tropical cyclones also frequently impact western Europe after undergoing the process of extra-tropical transition (ETT). ETT of a tropical cyclone refers to its propagation to the north, where it gradually loses its tropical characteristics and transforms into an extra-tropical cyclone. In addition, the newly formed extra-tropical cyclone may further develop into a warm-seclusion storm prior to reaching Europe. A Warm seclusion, although present in the mid-latitudes, exhibits characteristics of a tropical cyclone, many times displaying gale-force winds and extreme precipitation events. In this study, the simulations of six PRIMAVERA climate models will be analysed in terms of their capability to resolve the ETT of tropical cyclones towards Europe and the potential generation of warm seclusion storms. PRIMAVERA is a European-Union funded project which aims at the construction of high-resolution climate models, producing accurate simulations for the benefit of industry and society. The evaluation of the models is based on the ability to realistically produce the frequency, seasonal and spatial characteristics as well as structure of these systems. Finally, the results are compared to re-analysis data studies.