PhD dissertation: Modelling land-use futures in the context of climate change mitigation - The role of land use in global climate change mitigation and its connection to the water-land-energy-food-climate nexus.

Land use and climate change are closely related. For example, through greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture or deforestation, through bioenergy, or through planting of forest to combat climate change. In addition, land use is also of great importance for other environmental problems such as drought, too much nitrogen, and loss of nature. Also for people’s livelihoods land is essential, such as for food production and the provision of water.

In this thesis, I describe the research that I did on future land use at the global scale. The work has been done using computer models. First, in the context of climate change: what will land use in the long-term future look like (i.e. up to the end of the 21st century) in different scenarios, and what is the effect of land use on climate change. In addition, I looked into measures that can counteract climate change: for example afforestation, protection and restoration of peatlands, using bioenergy and less meat consumption. Finally, I studied the interactions between climate policy, environmental problems and people’s livelihoods.

I conclude that land use plays an essential role in both the cause and the solution of climate change. Reforestation, peatlands, bioenergy and less meat can substantially help to limit climate change. However, stopping fossil fuel use is the largest measure that is needed. Reforestation and bioenergy can also have negative effects, such as food shortages or too much water use. Less meat consumption is a win-win strategy, as it combats climate change, reduces nature loss and limits water consumption and pollution.