PhD defence: Breaking and re-forming the chemical industry: Optimizing the transition from fossil-based clusters to net zero

The chemical industry produces essential materials for modern life, including plastics, fertilizers, and medicines, but it is also responsible for around 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Transforming this sector is therefore crucial for meeting climate targets. At the same time, it is particularly difficult to transform, because it relies heavily on fossil carbon, operates large and long-lived facilities, and is organized in tightly connected industrial clusters. 

In this PhD research, I developed an open-source optimization framework to explore realistic pathways toward net-zero chemical clusters. The results show that substantial emission reductions can already be achieved using near-market technologies such as electrification, green hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage. However, these options alone are not sufficient to reach true net-zero. Achieving climate neutrality will also require alternative feedstocks, such as bio-based and synthetic options. As these are currently more expensive than fossil-based feedstocks, their future competitiveness will largely depend on policy support. 

Another key finding is that flexibility matters. Plants that can adjust their operation to changing electricity prices or feedstock availability perform better both economically and environmentally. Technologies with feedstock flexibility and systems that can exploit low-cost renewable electricity consistently emerge as robust “low-regret” choices. The research also highlights the importance of early and coordinated investments in shared infrastructure, such as electricity grids and CO₂ networks. 

Overall, this research shows that climate-neutral chemical clusters are achievable, but timely action is essential. Waiting for complete certainty increases long-term costs. Instead, early investment in flexible technologies, combined with coordinated planning between industry and government, offers the most resilient and cost-effective pathway toward a net-zero chemical industry.